Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Delivered to Moscow In the Coming Days, States Ukraine's President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.